The first round of the 2025 ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament brings a fascinating matchup between the California Golden Bears and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Both teams enter with identical records, but their paths through the season have been very different. Fans and bettors alike are searching for a reliable California vs Virginia Tech prediction as the two programs prepare to square off in Charlotte.
Game Details
Matchup: California Golden Bears vs Virginia Tech Hokies
Date: Tuesday, March 11, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM EST
Venue: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
How to Watch: ACC Network
California Record: 13 18 (6 14 ACC)
Virginia Tech Record: 13 18 (8 12 ACC)
Head to Head History
Even though California is new to the ACC, the teams already met once this season. On January 11, Virginia Tech traveled to Berkeley and pulled off a narrow 71 68 win. That game was defined by free throws and late game execution. Cal’s Andrej Stojakovic missed a buzzer beating three that would have sent the game into overtime.
This head to head result matters because it shows Virginia Tech has the confidence to beat Cal, even on the road. On a neutral court, the Hokies may feel they have an advantage.
California Golden Bears: Season Overview & Key Players
California’s first year in the ACC has been full of challenges. The Bears finished 15th in the standings, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Head coach Mark Madsen has his team fighting hard, and their disciplined defense has given better teams trouble.
Key Players
Jeremiah Wilkinson (Guard): The freshman has exploded onto the scene, averaging 15 points per game. His 36 point performance against Notre Dame showed just how dangerous he can be.
Andrej Stojakovic (Forward): Known for getting to the free throw line, Stojakovic averages nearly 5.6 free throw attempts per game and converts at a strong rate. He scored 24 points in the first matchup with Virginia Tech.
Fardaws Aimaq (Center): A rebounding machine, Aimaq helps Cal dominate the glass, which is key against a team that sometimes struggles inside.
Cal’s strength is its ability to draw fouls and rebound. They rank among the best in offensive rebounding and free throw rate.
Virginia Tech Hokies: Season Overview & Key Players
Virginia Tech had a disappointing non conference slate but improved during ACC play. They finished 10th in the standings, showing some resilience.
Key Players
Tobi Lawal (Forward): The Hokies’ leading scorer at 12.2 points per game. His athleticism makes him a tough cover, but he has been inconsistent. If he’s aggressive, he can dominate inside.
Jaydon Young (Guard): Over the last five games, Young has been Virginia Tech’s hottest scorer, averaging 17 points. His streaky shooting could swing this game.
Ben Hammond (Guard): A freshman tasked with handling the ball. When Hammond takes care of possessions, Virginia Tech plays much better.
The Hokies’ weakness is turnovers. They are 0 8 when committing 16 or more turnovers, but 13 10 when staying under 15. Ball security will decide their fate.
Team Form & Recent Performance
California Golden Bears
The Bears finished their season with inconsistent form but showed flashes of promise. Their upset of Notre Dame behind Wilkinson’s 36 points was a season highlight. They are 3 3 in quadrant three games and tend to stay competitive, even against stronger opponents.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech ended with slightly better momentum. Their depth allowed different players to step up on different nights. The Hokies also have more balance, but their offensive inconsistency has been a problem. Defensively, they rank outside the top 150 on KenPom, which means they rely heavily on scoring spurts to win games.
Statistical Comparison
Looking at season stats gives a clear picture of the matchup:
Points per Game: California 71.4 | Virginia Tech 70.2
Opponent Points per Game: California 74.1 | Virginia Tech 73.5
Turnovers per Game: California 12.8 | Virginia Tech 14.9
Free Throws: California 23.1 attempts per game | Virginia Tech 17.6 attempts per game
Three Point Shooting: California 34% | Virginia Tech 36%
The numbers highlight the trade-off: Cal gets to the line more and controls rebounds, while Virginia Tech shoots the ball better from deep.
Key Matchups and X Factors
Free Throw Battle
California thrives at the line. If Virginia Tech can defend without fouling, they limit Cal’s biggest advantage.
Rebounding Edge
With Aimaq inside, Cal can control the boards. Virginia Tech will need Lawal and their forwards to match that energy.
Guard Play
Freshmen on both sides (Wilkinson for Cal, Hammond for VT) will be tested in a high pressure setting. Whoever handles the moment better could tilt the game.
Crowd Factor
The Spectrum Center is closer to Virginia Tech, so the Hokies may enjoy more fan support. That could boost their energy late in a tight game.
Betting Odds, Spread, and Trends
According to FanDuel Sportsbook:
Spread: California -2.5 (-105) | Virginia Tech +2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: California -134 | Virginia Tech +112
Total: 138.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Betting Trends
California is 4 1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games as a favorite.
Virginia Tech is 3 7 ATS in its last 10 games.
The Under has hit in four of Virginia Tech’s last six contests.
California is 2 8 in its last 10 games away from home.
These trends suggest California has been slightly more reliable for bettors, though neither team has been dominant.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets
This is one of the toughest games to call. Both teams have flaws, and neither has been consistent. California has the rebounding and free throw edge, while Virginia Tech has better balance and a slight home court advantage with crowd support.
Prediction: California 71, Virginia Tech 68
Best Bets:
California Moneyline (-134)
Under 138.5 (projected lower scoring due to nerves and pace)
Jeremiah Wilkinson Over Points (he’s Cal’s engine and will get shots up)
Final Thoughts
This first round clash in Charlotte will test two teams with similar records but different styles. California relies on drawing fouls, crashing the boards, and playing tough defense. Virginia Tech counts on depth, three point shooting, and hoping one of their scorers gets hot.
The safer side is California, thanks to their ability to win the shot volume battle and get easy points at the line. However, don’t count out Virginia Tech if Jaydon Young or Tobi Lawal catches fire.
If you’re betting, lean toward Cal, but expect a close finish. This game may set the tone for an unpredictable ACC Tournament.
In the end, the California vs Virginia Tech prediction points to a narrow Golden Bears win, but the Hokies have the tools to make things very interesting.